BLUE

...the joy and despair of being a Wolverines fan.

September 8, 2007

INTERVENTION

I lied.

I said I was done with these Wolverines, but that lasted about four days. That is a good sign, I guess. I am back at the computer because something very significant is brewing for this weekend: whether or not “The Intervention” was successful.

The facts are clear: last Saturday’s game represents perhaps the single worst coaching effort in Division 1A history. A top-ranked team playing at home losing to a crappy team with a sophomore QB who can’t throw, a Michigan team with four future NFL players in the receiving game that was neutralized by midget walk-ons.  In the past, Lloyd has always had excuses, usually crappy ones but excuses nonetheless (usually offered by his defenders and not by Lloyd himself).  Those excuses had combined with an excellent but rapidly tarnishing career record to keep the hounds at bay.  So, too, an addict spiraling downwards always has an endless supply of excuses.

Now Lloyd is here:

There are no more excuses here.  Just coaching incompetence and a hard concrete bed.

Yet, Lloyd can coach – he has done so in the past and done it well.  For whatever deep unfathomable reason he has, in recent years, embraced ghastly predictability like a lover. Well, there is no romance in the offing when you are at bottom. Appalachian State, against our wishes and uninvited, nonetheless acted as our proxy in this Intervention, and delivered a message that we’ve been trying in vain to deliver for 6 years:

Throw out the old playbook.

Be unpredictable.

Attack – aggressive offense and aggressive defense.

This defense, if it remembers some fundamentals, can be adequate.  Like with the hated Buckeyes, when a powerful offense gets ahead early, the defense has the freedom to attack (with tight coverage on corners). And it is not simply personnel, but how they are used. The average recruiting ranking of Michigan defenders in the two deep is higher than Wisconsin, Penn State and even LSU.

Of course, that simplistic analysis does not take into account depth at certain positions, and unexpected suckiness of highly regarded recruits.  But the larger point stands: how can most of linebacking corps and defensive backfield be so horrible if the athletes at these positions are coming from the best stock of talent in the land?  Wisconsin is illustrative: at every position but one they recruited the crappiest talent (by far), and at every position but one they have the players with the least experience.  Yet they may have the most fearsome defense in the Big 10!  Are you saying that Michigan simply can't judge talent?  Like I can't judge good stocks to buy? I always think I’ve purchased a top-notch stock only to have it suck for years. Are Alvarez and Bielema great stock traders, finding all these gems in the penny stock lists?  Nonsense.

The answer, to my heart’s dismay, is coaching, and the fish rots from the head down. You can’t tell me Ron English and Jim Hermann are just crappy coaches. You cannot convince me Steve Szabo doesn’t know proper linebacker positions. The philosophy is Carr’s and that philosophy if rife with soft corners, and prevent defenses with a Turrets-like sprinkling of insanely irresponsible aggression, as if short bursts of temporary insanity will shield him from the “conservative” label.

So the team did not lose last week because we suck, particularly on defense. We lost because of coaching and the impact of bad coaching on the players, who, like Ohio State in the NC game, showed up expecting to easily win.

The question, then, this Saturday is has the message gotten through?  Has the Intervention succeeded?  If so, and a Lloyd with nothing to lose throws out the playbook, becomes unpredictable and attacks, then Michigan’s superior talent will triumph and today will be an easy victory.  And the rest of the season will look bright. If Lloyd trots out the old playbook, if he shows the inexplicable softness characteristic of all his defenses except those occasionally peopled with football superhero monsters (i.e., Woodson, Harris, etc.), we are in for a 7-5 season and football ignominy.

Prediction: I think the message has gotten through.  Michigan wins easily, 41-21.

HALFTIME UPDATE: Maybe not.

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